Russian energy exports will never return to pre-war levels.
The war in Ukraine and the global energy crisis will be a turning point for the global energy market. According to an IEA survey, Russian energy exports will never return to the levels of 2021 and, by 2030, will drop by 50%. The IEA emphasizes that the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine and the global energy crisis will accelerate the transition of the largest countries to renewable sources – it is predicted that by the mid-2020s, the global demand for fossil fuels will reach a plateau. It is noted that the crisis forced the governments of the largest countries, including the US, the EU, Japan, South Korea, China, and India, to take more significant steps toward structural changes in energy production and consumption. If all the announced programs are implemented, global investments in clean energy will increase by 50% by 2030, up to $2T annually. At the same time, the basic IEA scenario described in the report predicts that around 2025, global demand for fossil fuels will pass its peak, after which it will begin to fall.