Retail turnover in Ukraine grew by 18%, but a third of retail revenue occurs in the shadows.

According to UTG estimates, Ukraine’s 2024 retail turnover is expected to amount to ₴2.184T despite the war, which is 17.7% more than in 2023 (₴1.822T). Turnover is also growing in dollar equivalent (+3.1%). However, despite the positive dynamics, the market continues to experience the same negative factors that have been observed in previous years. Retail turnover’s growth in absolute value ​​ was influenced by the increase in inflation (12%) and the hryvnia exchange rate relative to the US dollar.

NAI Ukraine also notes that last year, the share of shadow retail trade in Ukraine began to grow, which stood at 30% before the war. In 2025, turnover will continue to move into the shadows. According to the forecast, this share will increase to 45% after Ukraine’s tax increase.

The main generators of declared turnover remain large retail chains. In Kyiv, 72 shopping centers with a total retail area of ​​2.6 million square meters have already been built. In contrast, in Lviv there is only a fraction of similar retail spaces.