Nearly 50% of Ukrainian retail operates in the shadows.

The extent of shadow activity in Ukrainian retail trade has reached a critical level: According to various estimates, up to 45% of all retail transactions may take place outside of Ukraine’s tax system. Experts state that Ukraine’s total volume of retail trade exceeds ₴2T annually.

Meanwhile, the share of the 10 largest chains – including ATB, Silpo, Aurora, Fora, Rozetka, Novus, Metro, Rush (EVA), Omega (Varus), and Foodcom (Velika Kyshenya) – amounts to only ₴529B ($13B), which is slightly more than 25% of the estimated total. This indicates a substantial presence of small and medium-sized retailers, a portion of which operates without paying taxes on all or a portion of their business activity. Before the full-scale war, shadow activity was estimated at 30%; by 2025, it may surpass 45%. Consequently, nearly ₴1T of turnover goes unaccounted for within the tax system, leading to considerable budgetary revenue losses through tax evasion, gray imports, and smuggling.

Locally, 82% of Ukrainian food retailers are domestic players, and it is among these that most violations are reported. The lost tax revenue could be used to support the military, develop infrastructure, or fund social programs.