Mining of minerals in Ukraine under the deal with the US won’t commence until after 2040.

According to industry sources, the subsoil agreement forged by US President Donald Trump with Ukraine is unlikely to generate substantial returns for at least a decade, and it will necessitate considerable private investment to kickstart new projects.

“It could take 10-15 years,” stated Eric Rasmussen, former head of the EBRD’s natural resources department.

Peter Bryant, chairman of the Clareo strategy consulting firm, remarked that the agreement “does little to reduce supply chain risks over the next 10 years, as it will take at least as long to open and develop mines.”

Significant challenges persist, including the ongoing war with Russia, incomplete geological information, severely damaged infrastructure, and corruption, along with typical issues related to starting any new resource initiative. These factors imply that the mines established under this agreement will not begin mineral production until after 2040. A major challenge is gaining access to Soviet-era geological exploration data, much of which remains classified because of the war. Additionally, considering Ukraine’s extensive mining history, many of the richest deposits may have already been depleted.