In the first half of 2025, Ukraine’s macroeconomic condition has worsened.

Analysts suggest that this decline stems from the exhaustion of recovery effects following the tough year of 2022, which became evident around the start of the second quarter last year. Essentially, the Ukrainian economy has reached its growth ceiling, unable to progress into positive territory without favorable structural changes.

Industrial production in the first quarter fell by 6.1% compared to the same time last year, the volume of construction work dropped by 11%, and industrial producer prices surged by 40.4%. Meanwhile, the volume of industrial products sold in Ukraine rose by 15.6%, and capital investments increased by 32.5%.

However, this growth mainly reflects a nominal increase in the national currency and greater investment and production in the defense sector. Moreover, external factors have adversely affected the economy, including falling prices for several Ukrainian export products due to tariff conflicts and high uncertainty in the global market.

Consequently, Ukrainian export volume in monetary terms declined by 7.4% in the first quarter, totaling $9.9B.