ICU analysts provide a forecast for OVDP rates for the next six months.

In the coming months, there will be no noticeable reduction in the rates for OVDP because this trend has already played out in the second half of 2023 in response to the gradual decrease in the NBU discount rate, ICU reported.

By the end of 2024, OVDP rates are expected to be about 15.5% for short issues up to 12 months and 17-17.5% for longer securities. For comparison, at the beginning of 2023 long-term OVDP rates were 19-21%.

It is noted that in January-February, there may be a minor rate correction in response to the reduction of the NBU discount rate in December, but in the future, the fall in OVDP yield will stop until the second half of 2024.

Last year, due to a sharp slowdown in inflation, the NBU gradually reduced the discount rate from 25% to 15%.As a result, in the near future, the regulator has few opportunities to reduce the rate further.