How much new generation does Ukraine need to avoid an electricity shortage?

According to analysts, by 2026 Ukraine must install 4.3 GW of green generation and 1.1 GW of gas-fired plants to meet its urgent energy needs. Solar power plants can play a key role in updating the energy system.

Given the current geopolitical situation, experts are considering two possible development scenarios until 2030: the Front scenario, which assumes a prolonged war and the preservation of the front line in its current position, and the Victory scenario, which assumes Ukraine’s return to control over its entire territory, including Crimea. In both cases, the country will need an unprecedented increase in energy capacity of 10.5-14.6 GW.

The transition to distributed gas and renewable generation is a more sustainable option, although it is more expensive. The smallest investment will be required to repair damaged plants – €9.3-12.5B over five years. However, restoring coal-fired power plants will leave the system vulnerable to attack. If Ukraine replaces damaged coal generation with renewables and gas-fired plants, the investment requirement will increase to €13.6-18.8B.