Growing demand and the arrival of foreign investors will shape the Ukrainian land market.

Oleksandr Chornyi, co-founder of Zeminvest, stated that since the opening of Ukraine’s land market in 2021, land prices have demonstrated stable growth, even amid challenging conditions and a full-scale war. The weighted average price, which initially ranged from $1,200 to $1,600 per hectare, now stands at $2,200 to $2,300. This reflects the agricultural sector’s resilience and persistent interest in land as a fundamental asset.

One of the key factors shaping market dynamics is the substantial postponed demand, as many potential investors await the war’s end and better investment conditions.

Currently, several factors are expected to influence the land market’s price and dynamics:

1. Institutional formation of the market: The market is becoming well-organized, with emerging investment strategies, legislative practices, and infrastructure.
2. Activation of agricultural holdings: With the opening of the market to legal entities in 2024, there will be a revival of demand from agricultural enterprises.
3. Opportunities for foreign investors: Although participation by foreigners is currently prohibited, Ukraine’s alignment with the EU and dual citizenship legislation may facilitate their entry into the market in the medium term and will heighten competition and price pressure.
4. Affordable lending: Currently, banks are hesitant to provide loans for the purchase of agricultural land. However, it is anticipated that over time the NBU and commercial banks will develop more accessible lending mechanisms, which will impact demand and supply.