Analysts have updated the forecast for this year’s main Ukrainian macroeconomic indicators.

Ukraine’s economy will grow by 4% in 2024, inflation will accelerate to 8%, and the exchange rate is expected to be ₴42.6 to $1, according to an updated macro forecast from the ICU financial group. Analysts note that after a noticeable first quarter increase in GDP, growth will slow significantly in the second half of the year due to electricity and labor shortages and declining harvests. In April, ICU forecasted growth of 4.1% versus 4% today. The key drivers of growth are domestic private consumption and the recovery of exports through the operation of the maritime transport corridor. As for inflation, its acceleration was expected but happened somewhat faster than expected. At the end of the year, inflation will reach 7-8% (the forecast in April was 6.4%). It is also predicted that in the second half of the year Ukraine should receive more international aid than in the first, so gold and foreign exchange reserves will increase to $43.7B (the April forecast was $42.3B), which will enable the NBU to maintain control over the foreign exchange market.