Analysts calculate the damage caused by the border closure and give their forecast for the coming months.

The blockade of Ukraine’s western borders by protesters since the fall of 2023 has led to decreased exports and imports. At the same time, the flow of goods was quickly directed in other ways. The greatest negative effects were felt in November 2023. According to NBU estimates, direct losses amounted to about $160M for the export of goods and $500M for imports.

“However, a fairly quick reorientation of trade flows to other modes of transport and different routes, particularly the sea corridor, allowed these losses to completely level out for exports and partially for imports,” the NBU review says.

In mid-January the Polish protesters’ new blockade of the border, which was supposed to have ended, will reduce import losses in January to $150-$200M. The NBU expects certain restrictions from neighboring countries to continue in February and March before stopping. Import losses during this period will amount to $100M per month.