What are the possible consequences of reducing Ukraine’s financial assistance?

If Ukraine’s budget gap increases in the next two years and the situation with external financing does not improve, a large-scale reduction in the NBU’s reserves and a sharp devaluation of the hryvnia will become inevitable. The devaluation of the hryvnia, in turn, could trigger a banking crisis and a corporate debt crisis.

In 2025, the Ukrainian government forecasts the receipt of international assistance in the amounts of $33.1B from the EU, $15B from the US, $3.5B from Canada, $1B each from Britain and the IBRD, $2.2B from the IMF, and $0.5B from Japan. Contributions from external donors totaling $9.1B will be transferred to the needs of the 2026 and 2027 budgets.

“The situation with external financing will significantly worsen in 2026. After all, the commitments of international donors for the specified year barely reach $17.3B. Using part of the funds obtained in 2025 will make it possible to increase their volume to $25.4B. However, even this amount will obviously not cover the projected gaps in the budget and Ukraine’s balance of payments,” the experts state.