Business activity remains stable, but falling employee numbers and rising prices for goods and services is expected.

The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) in January 2025 was 41, matching the level from January 2024. The challenging security situation hindered the BAEI’s dynamics, along with a lack of investment in productive capital, energy and labor deficiencies, rising production costs, and inflationary and devaluation processes. Conversely, the positive contributors were stable consumer demand and substantial international financial assistance, the NBU explained.

The regulator also highlighted that in the industry, construction, and services sectors, the share of respondents expecting increased prices for their goods and services has changed slightly. In contrast, in the trade sector the proportion of enterprises anticipating a rise in the prices of products for sale has significantly decreased, particularly against the backdrop of seasonal sales.

According to the NBU, the labor market situation remains challenging. Respondents across all surveyed sectors were inclined to reduce their employee numbers, especially in construction. However, service companies expect the pace of staff reductions to slow.