How will the real estate market react to the hryvnia’s further fall?

Until the end of the year, bankers forecast exchange rate fluctuations in the current corridor of ₴41.3-42 per $1. This coincides with the exchange rate calculations laid down in the state budget (₴42.1 at the end of the year). At the same time, the business community forecasts the average dollar to hryvnia exchange rate at ₴44 for next year.

Therefore, real estate developers warn about a rise in real estate prices because up to 40% of construction materials are imported and their price is influenced by the exchange rate. If the dollar rises to ₴44, the cost of a square meter may increase by 10-15%. In turn, the rise in prices will lead to a drop in real estate demand: A 5-7% decrease in demand for housing in the middle price segment is expected.

This situation would reduce interest in real estate investments, except for the premium and commercial real estate segments, which are less vulnerable to economic fluctuations. Investment growth in premium real estate could be as much as 12-15%.