Ukraine’s economy will shrink by a fifth this year.

According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Ukraine’s economy will shrink by a fifth this year and then recover in 2023 if everything goes according to the scenario of a ceasefire in a couple of months. This forecast is fraught with severe risks of deterioration “in the event of escalating hostilities or restrictions on gas exports from Russia,” the organization said in a statement. The report noted that the truce is forecast to be reached in a few months, and the country’s recovery could begin in 2023, with the economy growing by 23% next year.