Without the ability to hit targets deep inside the Russian Federation, the Ukrainian energy industry may not survive the winter.

If the Western allies, in particular, the US and Britain, do not revise their position regarding strikes with the long-range weapons they have provided, Ukraine may lose the energy war with Russia this winter.

Russian forces have adapted their tactics, using airstrikes targeting Ukraine’s energy system following their previous unsuccessful bombing campaign. Moreover, the supply of Iranian short-range ballistic missiles, the Fath-360, will help Russia to accomplish this. In particular, Moscow will be able to strike logistics and communication nodes and ammunition depots behind the Ukrainian front line. This will allow Russia to concentrate its longer-range missiles on the energy system.

Critical substations that supply electricity to nuclear power plants (NPPs) are in the enemy’s sights. If they are disabled, the reactors must quickly be stopped to avoid a nuclear incident.

“If operations at three nuclear power plants are paralyzed, then everything will be over for Ukraine in the energy war. And this will reduce its fighting capacity, collapse the economy, and weaken its position in the event of peace negotiations,” writes Politico.