“Why I am so pessimistic — or realistic?”

“Why I am so pessimistic — or realistic?” the Naftogaz number two asked himself. First, Gazprom is overbuilding pipeline capacity. Meanwhile, EU gas consumption will be “flat,” then decline as renewables rise and EU tries to meet carbon emissions goals. Second, Russia no longer needs Ukraine as a fallback for cold winters when EU gas consumption spikes. Gazprom has bought 8 billion cubic meters of storage reservoirs in Germany and elsewhere in Europe. Finally, Gazprom is not showing serious interest in negotiating a new contract, said Vitrenko, who participated in the two EU-Naftogaz-Gazprom contract talks. Saying that Gazprom and Naftogaz “live in parallel worlds,” he predicted: “There is no indication in May we will have reasonable negotiations.”