Which sector in Ukraine will suffer the most from the suspension of the customs visa-free regime with the EU, and is there an alternative?

Analysts note that the EU will not extend the trade visa-free regime, which allowed Ukraine to trade goods duty-free. Poland and several other countries opposed the automatic extension. However, the EU will not cancel all autonomous trade measures and offers Ukraine the opportunity to update the terms of free trade within the framework of the association agreement.

The EU’s share in total Ukrainian exports increased from 40% in 2021 to over 60% in 2024. In the agricultural sector, this share reaches up to 80%, depending on the group of goods, and consequently, this sector will suffer the most from the return of duties.

More than 90% of sunflower oil imported into the EU comes from Ukraine, and Spain is among the three largest importers of Ukrainian grain. Ukrainian agricultural exporters may return to the markets of Africa or the Middle East to partially compensate for the termination of the customs visa-free regime, but this may be hindered by complicated logistics, danger, and competition from the Russian Federation.