Where foreign capital will invest into Ukraine depends on the war.

The President of the Kyiv School of Economics, Tymofiy Mylovanov, outlined three possible scenarios for the development of events on the front that will determine the dynamics of future foreign investment in Ukraine:

1. Optimistic scenario (Ukraine’s victory, rapid recovery): The potential for attracting investment in strategic sectors exceeds $25B; opportunities exist in large-scale infrastructure restoration, logistics, metallurgy, and energy.
2. Protracted war scenario: Investment will persist in the agricultural sector, IT, logistics, and the defense industry; the investment focus will be on stable sectors with export potential to the EU.
3. Negative scenario (deteriorating security situation): Investors will center on minimal capacity maintenance; among the most promising investment sectors in Ukraine will be IT and communications, transport and logistics, energy, green metallurgy, the agro-industry, construction, and critical materials.

According to Mylovanov, the reasons for foreigners to invest in Ukraine include guarantees and insurance, low asset values, post-war recovery potential, building Europe’s energy independence through Ukraine’s capabilities, and Ukrainian expertise in defense technology.