What would an energy truce provide for Ukraine and Russia?

Since the war’s onset, Russia has systematically targeted the Ukrainian energy sector. For Kyiv, a primary target among the aggressor’s facilities is the extensive network of Russian oil refineries. If the energy truce proves effective, the Russian Federation will enjoy a reduced risk of refinery shutdowns due to UAV attacks in the near future. These plants are currently undergoing seasonal maintenance, and additionally, fuel demand tends to rise in the spring with the onset of the sowing season.

Meanwhile, halting Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants could offer Ukrainians a reprieve from power outages, which have already become less severe following winter’s end. This pause would enable Ukraine to at least partially restore damaged facilities and allow Kyiv time to perform annual maintenance on nuclear power plants. Ukraine also can ramp up domestic gas production and store larger fuel volumes in preparation for winter.

However, military experts suggest that Putin might have agreed to an energy truce solely because Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities against Russia are expanding, prompting him to seek their cessation.