What risks does the transit of Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine from the Russian Federation entail?

Mykhailo Gonchar, President of the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI, warned that even after the contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine expires in 2025, there is a risk of continued gas transit from the aggressor state,  under the guise of it being a resource from Azerbaijan. In Europe, lobbyists advocate for the supply of gas from Azerbaijan in transit through Russia and Ukraine – in addition to the fuel volumes Baku supplies that bypass the Russian Federation.

“But there is no extra resource in Azerbaijan. Everything available for export is already sent to Southern Europe by other routes,” Gonchar clarified.

Therefore, additional export volumes would essentially replace Azerbaijani gas with Russian gas. This can be arranged between traders who will sell the resource to a Slovak company. Slovakia consumes approximately 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year and is negotiating with Baku to supply 20 billion cubic meters of fuel. This amounts to approximately $8-10B that Russia would receive, with Ukraine able to earn no more than $1B from the transportation of the resource.