What are the risks of Scholz’s position regarding German aid to Ukraine?

Kyiv has become hostage to 2025’s budget agreement struggle between the three parties in Germany’s dysfunctional coalition government. As the FT writes, Germany will reduce aid to Ukraine from €7.5B this year to €4B next year and to €500M in 2027. However, Chancellor Olaf Scholz insists that Germany will remain the biggest supporter of Ukraine in Europe.

He says Berlin will instead provide military aid through a planned $50B loan agreed upon by G7 leaders. However, as the publication notes, Scholz’s argument is a diversionary maneuver.  This loan is technically challenging to implement, and it is still a potential hostage to political objections.

In addition, $50B is potentially insufficient, as it must cover Ukraine’s budget deficit and the purchase of weapons. Instead of support, Scholz’s position is an invitation to other G7 leaders to cut aid to Kyiv. Worse, it signals fatigue to Vladimir Putin, who is betting that the West’s resolve will weaken.