Ukrainian refugees may lose their right to stay in the EU following the ceasefire.

Millions of Ukrainian refugees in the EU might lose the right to remain in Europe amid discussions of a truce, as the EU has no clear plan that will allow them to remain in EU countries post-ceasefire.

Since the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, nearly 4.3 million Ukrainians have sought asylum in the EU. The EU’s temporary protection directive currently remains valid until March 2026, granting Ukrainian citizens the right to live, work, and access services in their host countries. While 77% of refugees planned to return in 2023, that figure dropped to 65% in 2024. Additionally, 25% were undecided, while 11% indicated they intended to stay in Europe permanently last year.

A ceasefire could drastically change this situation overnight: EU countries will need to decide whether to maintain the right for Ukrainians to stay. The European Commission is already contemplating several actions, such as “whether or not to extend” temporary protection to Ukrainian refugees, assisting individuals in transitioning to national status for employment, education, or family reunification, and offering support to those who have chosen to return to Ukraine.