Ukrainian farmers earned 77% less from the new crop than was expected.

EBITDA for major crops harvested in 2022 was $47 per hectare in December 2023, while their forecasted value was $206 in February, Agrohub research shows. The actual result is less than one-fourth of the expected amount, 77.18%.

As analysts explained, logistical difficulties led companies to sell grain from the 2022 harvest throughout 2023. Therefore, the actual rate of return on working capital for growing crops was 4%, while the forecast value at the beginning of the year was 19%.

In addition, some crops harvested in 2022 were unprofitable due to low prices and increased logistics costs, including corn (-$227 per hectare) and winter wheat (-$19). However, oil crops remained profitable: winter rapeseed EBITDA ($676), soybeans ($225), and sunflower ($175).

At the same time, in 2023 prices for some products fell: corn by 19%, sunflower by 11%, rapeseed and soybeans by 2% and 1%, respectively.