Ukraine is rapidly losing its export positions amid the ongoing crisis in the mining sector.

After Ukraine’s remarkable recovery in iron ore exports in early 2024, boosted by the opening of the sea corridor, Ukraine’s MMC sector reached nearly 50% of its pre-war levels. However, these figures are now swiftly declining. Since the beginning of 2025, overseas ore sales have dropped again, with a 10.2% decline from January to April compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 11.15 million tons.

The monetary losses are even more pronounced, approaching 21%. In 2025, the physical volume of ore exports may decrease by 15%, bringing it down to 27 million tons. The iron ore sector is the third largest source of foreign exchange earnings for Ukraine, trailing only oil and corn, making this crisis particularly detrimental to the economy. Despite global ore prices higher than the levels seen between 2015 and 2018, significant challenges arise from domestic costs and global demand.

The increase in electricity prices and logistics services makes Ukrainian ore less competitive, while the average ore price in the global market is projected to drop to $73 per ton. Moreover, after the end of visa-free trade with the EU in June the situation might worsen.