Ukraine is expected to continue losing population through emigration until 2027, with an additional 400,000 citizens anticipated to leave.

The National Bank of Ukraine projects that the net migration outflow this year will be around 200,000 people. According to the bank’s inflation report, migration outflows are forecasted to continue at a similar level in 2026. However, net return migration is expected to begin in 2027, with about 100,000 people returning – significantly fewer than the previously forecasted 500,000. Factors contributing to emigration include ongoing high security risks, including Russia’s continued shelling across Ukraine and terrorist attacks on civilians. Conversely, extended stay permits in the EU and transition to permanent residence are likely to limit active return migration. Since the start of the full-scale war, approximately three million Ukrainians have left and not returned. In the current year, 250,000 citizens who crossed the border have not returned, which is 37.5% less than during the same period last year.