Ukraine has doubled its national debt, and here is what will happen next.

During the 2.5 years of the full-scale war, Ukraine’s public debt has increased by 130% in hryvnia equivalent (+₴3.644B), and in foreign currency by 66% (+$62B).

“Despite everything, the debt burden remains moderate and under control. In the first half of 2024, expenditures on servicing the national debt amounted to 8.6% of the expenditures of the state budget’s general fund. For 2014-2021, such expenditures amounted to an average of 13.4%. While in the period from 2022 to the first half of the current year, they will not exceed 8%,” noted Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the parliament’s finance committee.

Currently, the lion’s share of the national debt’s growth is being created by loans issued on preferential terms with a long payment deferral at low rates – all foreign national debt is provided on non-market terms.

Hetmantsev claims that the stabilization of the national debt at the 90-95% of GDP level in the next 2-3 years will be facilitated by the successful restructuring of Eurobond payments, as well as extending the deferral of servicing and repayment of loans to the Paris Club until 2027.