Ukraine could potentially replace US bioethanol exports to Europe.

The country has 17 bioethanol plants with a production capacity of 430,000 tons of G1 alcohol, used as an eco-friendly additive for gasoline in the EU and Switzerland. Since May, Ukraine has mandated a 5% bioethanol blend in gasoline, but the market only requires 100,000 tons of bioethanol.

Ukraine actively exports this eco-friendly fuel to Europe under a current quota of 100,000 tons per year. By June 5, this quota could be lifted if a duty-free export regime is implemented. One potential reason this may not take place is that Ukraine produces G1 bioethanol from corn and molasses, which are food products; increasing their use raises food security concerns. In the EU, the highest demand is for G2 bioethanol, produced from inedible raw materials produced from cellulose.

Currently, American companies sell over 300,000 tons of bioethanol to Europe. If the tariff conflict between the EU and the US escalates, American bioethanol imports to Europe may cease, allowing Ukraine to benefit from an expanded export quota.