Trump’s tariffs could severely impact Russia’s oil revenue.

While Moscow has managed to evade US President Trump’s tariffs, the Russian budget will still endure consequences from Washington’s trade war. The Telegraph reports that a threat to Russia has emerged from a steep decline in oil prices, as traders anticipate a global economic slowdown triggered by the Trump’s tariffs. This situation not only risks costing the Kremlin tens of billions of dollars in lost oil revenue, but it also jeopardizes its military capabilities.

Should the US enter a recession, oil prices could drop to $50 by December 2026. In the case of a global recession, prices may plummet to $45. If global GDP growth slows and OPEC+ refuses to cut oil production, the price of Brent crude oil could fall below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.

For the Russian economy, every $1 change in oil price, if maintained for a year, represents a $2.7B annual loss in oil export revenue. If oil prices decline to $50, Putin stands to lose around $67B.