Three scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine.

Bloomberg analysts have predicted three possible outcomes following the conclusion of the Russian-Ukrainian war:

1. The basic and most likely scenario is that Ukraine’s occupied territories will remain “suspended” and under Russia’s de facto control. There may be some territorial exchanges, including in the Kursk region. Ukraine will receive certain security guarantees; the only question is how effective they will be. Europeans will try to persuade Trump to continue supporting Ukraine while the EU strengthens its own capabilities.
2. The ideal scenario involves the US and Europeans committing to intervene bilaterally if Russia violates the ceasefire. Allies could pledge to increase military support for Ukraine and renew or enhance sanctions against Russia. They could also assist Ukraine in developing its defense industry and rebuilding its army to serve as a deterrent against future Russian attack.
3. Worst-case scenario: Trump loses interest even before a settlement agreement is reached; military and financial aid will be cut off, and Europeans will be compelled to tackle the issue independently. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be preserved, but Putin will consolidate significant gains: gaining control of a large amount of valuable territory and blocking Ukraine’s accession to NATO.