The West believes that Ukraine is fighting to avoid defeat and that there are no longer any aspirations of victory.

The difficult situation on the Ukrainian front and Russia’s significant superiority in manpower and equipment have forced Kyiv and its Western partners to change their goals and objectives. There is no longer any talk of liberating the occupied territories; instead, the main goal is to prevent Russia from capturing even more land. August-October of this year has become the most successful for the Russian army since the beginning of the invasion, with 460-480 square kilometers captured per month.

“At the moment, we are increasingly thinking about how Ukraine can survive,” a Pentagon source told The Economist.

Moscow seems to be betting that it will be able to achieve its goals in the Donbas next year and impose high casualties and substantial material damage on the Ukrainian military. This would allow Russia to dictate its terms during any subsequent negotiations.

Diplomats and analysts are inclined to believe that the war’s most likely outcome will be an agreement that temporarily freezes the conflict as Ukrainians realize that they are unable to reclaim 100% of their territory.