The war in Ukraine is preventing Russia from moving all of its troops to the NATO borders, though the aggressor is building up its military presence near Finland.

Western intelligence suggests that once the fighting in Ukraine concludes and a lasting ceasefire is established, Moscow could swiftly reposition troops to the borders of Finland, Norway, the Baltic states, and Belarus, directly adjacent to Poland’s eastern border. The intelligence indicates that around 800,000 troops could be repositioned.

Russia could use the large-scale Zapad 2025 exercises as a cover for deploying troops in Belarus, similar to the 2021 exercise that saw Russian troops sent to the borders of Ukraine under the guise of military drills. This time, the potential targets could be Lithuania or Poland.

“If the war continues, the Zapad 2025 exercises will remain just maneuvers. However, if the conflict ends on Russia’s terms, these maneuvers could become a prologue to a new war,” say officials familiar with the intelligence report.

Satellite imagery shows large-scale construction of new infrastructure, including troop shelters, warehouses, and field camps, which the Russian Federation is undertaking near its border with Finland. NATO confirms that Moscow’s activity is of strategic importance, as the border with Finland has become the longest section of NATO’s contact with Russia – over 1,300 kilometers.