The Russian economy cannot win or lose the war.

The dependence of the Russian economy on military spending has reached such a level that it cannot afford to win or lose a war, said Renaud Foucart, a professor of economics at Lancaster University.

The IMF expects Russia’s GDP to grow by 2.6% this year. This is significantly more than in the UK (0.6%) and the EU (0.9%). Similarly, Russia’s budget deficit will remain below 1% of GDP, compared to 5.1% in the UK and 2.8% in the EU. But most of this growth is caused by gigantic military expenditures, with about 40% of the state budget going to war. This year, the Kremlin plans to spend a record ₽36.6 trillion ($386B) on its military.

If Russia wins the war, the costs of restoring and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too significant, and its isolation would not allow the economy to develop. A prolonged stalemate may be the only solution for Russia to avoid total economic collapse.