The NBU has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s international aid for the coming years.

According to the NBU, Ukraine is expected to receive about $42B in international financing for 2024, $38B in 2025, and $25B in 2026. By the end of 2024, Ukraine will receive $4.8B under the SPUR program and administered through the World Bank, supported by $1.6B in US funding.

In addition, significant progress has been made in confirming foreign aid in 2025-2026. In particular, the Council of the EU approved a loan of up to €35B for Ukraine. The final amount will be specified taking into consideration the contributions of the G7 countries within the framework of the ERA program, and will not be tied to specific expenditures. Other G7 countries have also confirmed their readiness to join this $50B program, particularly the US. The ERA loan will be repaid with the proceeds from the frozen assets of the Russian Federation.

For 2024, the risk of not receiving the expected funding is low, but for the following years, it remains significant, although it has significantly decreased.