The NBU has a contingency plan for a potential external financing shortfall in 2026-2027.

According to Deputy Chairman Serhiy Nikolaychuk, if international assistance proves insufficient, the National Bank, together with the Ministry of Finance, is preparing to implement alternative mechanisms to support the budget. There is a plan for such a scenario, but it involves a tighter monetary policy, which could impact the financial market and slow the pace of economic recovery. He stated that the budget deficit in 2026 will be 19% of GDP.

Next year, Ukraine needs approximately $35B, with about $13B lacking a confirmed source. This need will be even more in 2027. Overall, the government estimates that financing requirements for 2026-2027, assuming persistent high security risks, will amount to $75B, of which $37.4B has not been sourced. The NBU’s forecast assumes external financial assistance will reach about $35B in 2027 and around $30B in 2027. The Dragon Capital investment group believes Ukraine could receive roughly $78B in international aid during 2025-2026, though part of this support depends on implementing reforms, and uncertainty surrounds the volume of additional financing.