The NBU expects that Ukraine’s international aid will decrease.

The National Bank anticipates that Ukraine will continue to receive significant external financial support, particularly in 2025, but the amount will gradually diminish as the country’s economic situation stabilizes. In 2025, Ukraine will receive $38.4B; in 2026 it will receive $25B, and $15B in 2027.

In 2025, the primary funding source will be the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loans for Ukraine mechanism. ERA’s benefit is that it provides assistance that does not have to be repaid by Ukraine, but from income generated by frozen Russian assets. The NBU also forecasts either an increase in the volume of assistance or its rescheduling to an earlier date. Furthermore, Ukraine’s losses from the war may be partly offset if it gains access to the principal amount of Russia’s frozen assets.

In January, Ukraine secured $3.1B in support from the EU through the ERA mechanism. The government also raised an additional $700M in equivalent by issuing government bonds on the domestic market.

Notably, an IMF mission is slated for the seventh review of the EFF program at the end of February. If the review goes well, Ukraine is set to receive $917.54M.