The European Commission anticipates a gradual return of refugees to Ukraine this year.

According to the EC, the number of beneficiaries of temporary protection in the EU as of January 2025 was about 4.3 million people. It is expected that the number of Ukrainians residing in the EU through this temporary protection will remain largely stable throughout 2025, decreasing to 4.1 million by the end of 2025 and to 3.8 million by the end of 2026. The report notes that the growth in the EU’s labor force from 2022 to 2024 is primarily due to the influx of refugees from Ukraine; however, this trend is likely to halt in 2025 and 2026.

The economic repercussions of Russia’s war against Ukraine remain highly uncertain and largely depend on its progression. The baseline scenario suggests that geopolitical tensions in the region and sanctions against Russia will endure throughout the forecast horizon (until the end of 2026).

“Security concerns have increased as the war in Ukraine continues. Despite the efforts of the US and the EU, a solid peace agreement that provides sufficient guarantees for Ukraine and the EU remains elusive,” the EC noted.