Sanctions will make Belarus heavily dependent on Russian economic aid, Timothy Ash writes from London.

“If the annual bill to Russia for backing Lukashenko had been $2-3bn, I would imagine this will at least double, if not more…It would not surprise me if the bill heads more to the $10bn mark…With Russians suffering crimped living standards foreign adventures might not be as popular as some would suggest, and especially in the run up to Duma elections in September.”