Sanctions are in place and taking hold: Russian refineries are idle, and India may stop buying Russian oil.

According to the Russian Ministry of Energy, oil companies in Russia face delays in repairing refineries due to sanctions. These repairs are slowed by equipment supply chain issues.

Meanwhile, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas of India Hardeep Singh Puri is confident that India can meet its oil needs through alternative sources if secondary sanctions impact Russian supplies. “India has diversified its sources of supply, and we have increased the number of supplier countries from about 27 to 40,” he said.

It’s worth noting that from January to June, Russia was still India’s largest oil supplier, accounting for around 35% of total imports.

In contrast, Ukrainian Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy Vladyslav Vlasyuk predicts that by the end of 2025, Russia could lose between $15 to $30B in oil revenue due to the new oil price ceiling, which was lowered from $60 to $47.6 per barrel. He added that most of the tankers in the shadow fleet are already under sanctions, and legal carriers may refuse to transport Russian oil. Consequently, after the EU introduced its 18th sanctions package, the Bahamas banned Russian tankers from flying their flag.