Russia will find itself on the verge of collapse if it loses China, a large oil customer.

Trading in Russian oil for March loadings in Asia has stopped as China is faced with a wide price gap between buyers and sellers. This comes after tanker freight costs soared due to the latest round of US sanctions.

India’s Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd also expects Russian oil cargoes to fall in March. India is looking for alternative supplies for March and April from the Middle East, Africa, and the US.

Last year, Russia sold 36% of its crude to India and almost 20% to China. However, the latest US sanctions target tankers that carry oil mainly to China.

And if, according to the former head of the GTS Operator, Serhiy Makogon, China stops buying Russian oil, it will have catastrophic consequences for the Kremlin since a third of its federal budget depends on oil and gas exports. After Russia lost Western export markets, it found itself entirely dependent on China, which has become a primary buyer and financial partner.