Russia lost $30B of its GDP in two weeks of the war against Ukraine.
Two weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the aggressor has suffered almost the worst economic decline since the crisis of the 1990s, which has already reduced Russia’s GDP by $30B, or 9% in 2022. After international sanctions, the economy, already in its second year of growth, rolled back in a matter of days. According to one of the first estimates of the damage already done, current forecasts by Bloomberg Economics suggest that production has fallen by about 2%, a drop rivaling the annual decline during the pandemic in 2020. This decline means that more than $30B has been eliminated from Russia’s annual gross domestic product, based on prices from last year. Bloomberg Economics’ previous forecast suggested a full-year decline in Russia’s GDP of about 9% in 2022. Economists’ estimates for the next year vary widely, ranging from the Institute of International Finance’s estimate of a “very deep recession” of 15% to a 7% contraction estimated by JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs.