Putin has received great incentives from the US to continue the war and achieve better results at the front.

A prolonged blockage of American aid will have disastrous consequences for Ukraine. When Trump’s Republican allies forced Congress to suspend arms supplies in 2023, it resulted in a lull on the front, allowing Russia to capture several cities, including Avdiivka. European support partially compensated for this shortfall, but it cannot instantly replace American military aid.

American aid was expected to increase sharply this year, as US defense companies fulfill contracts made in the early months of the war. Thus, a dozen HIMARS systems ordered back in 2022 were set to enter the battlefield soon.

With his decision, Trump provided Putin additional incentives to continue the war, raising valid concerns for the Ukrainian army. Also, Putin is unlikely to seek a peace agreement when his opponent is weakened. And if he does, it will only be for tactical maneuvering and to retool for future aggression.

Russia stated that Trump’s decision “may encourage the Kiev regime to engage in the peace process” and labeled it “the best investment in the cause of peace.”