Prolonged power outages in Ukraine provoke a new wave of refugees; the NBU worsens its forecast for personnel shortages and returning Ukrainians.

In Ukraine, increased pressure on commercial activities due to a lack of workers in the third quarter of the year was due to an increase in migration outflow that was beyond expectations, mainly due to long-term power outages over the summer, the NBU reported.

Assumptions for the net outflow of external migrants this year have been downgraded to about 500,000 people. The NBU also predicts that the number of returning emigrants will be less than expected – about 200,000 people annually. According to the UN, the number of Ukrainian migrants increased by almost 200,000 during the third quarter, and the growth continued at the beginning of the fourth quarter, reaching almost 6.8 million people.

Eurostat estimates that the number of Ukrainians with temporary protection status in the EU increased by 33,500 people to about 4.2 million people in September. The largest influxes took place in Germany (+6,970 people), Poland (+4,640 people), and Spain (+3,130 people).