Ukraine will receive $61B; is it enough to win the war? What is next?

Over the weekend, we witnessed a pivotal moment, not only in the approval of aid for Ukraine but also in the shift in US lawmakers’ attitude toward the Russian war in Ukraine. Why is this important? It’s significant because the EU typically defers to Washington in taking the first steps or at least seeking US approval before providing any assistance outside its borders. As such, the US $61B aid package should trigger more assistance from the EU states, which Ukraine desperately needs.

Moreover, The US House of Representatives has voted to allow Russian assets to be confiscated in Ukraine’s favor, which should hasten EU lawmakers in the process of confiscating $280B in Russian assets that will help Ukraine acquire the weapons it needs to liberate its territories. Yes, that’s correct. We need much more. Let’s not get too excited about the $61B package. This amount will definitely help us in the short term, but it will not enable us to win the war.

Anyone who thinks that $61B will be enough to defeat the enemy are mistaken. Constant battles with the enemy and sporadic delivery of arms and ammunition over the past several months have not only left us short on artillery shells, but we are also in need of tanks to replace those that we have recently lost, as well as fighter jets, ammunition, and many other weapons.

If Ukraine is to win the war, it needs a minimum of 100 F-16s ($7B) and 300 Western tanks ($3B), along with hundreds of howitzers and thousands of drones, among other equipment. Let’s not forget we also need money for rockets, missiles, and the spare parts necessary to maintain this equipment, which might amount to another $3B. Ukraine also needs approximately $3B every month for salaries and other military expenditures. So, if we add all these numbers together, Ukraine will spend the $61B aid package by the end of this year. This will strengthen its positions on the front line and perhaps even allow an offensive, but will not win the war.

If we are to win this war, we need the entirety of frozen Russian assets to change the situation at the front in our favor. Last year, Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Kherson saw our soldiers push the enemy back, only to be stopped by a lack of resources, which allowed the Russians enough time to gather themselves and construct nearly impenetrable fortifications. Despite the heroism displayed by Ukraine’s military, we cannot beat the enemy if our army is underfunded. If our allies want Ukraine to survive and bring Putin’s reign to an end, they will do what is necessary to provide Ukraine with the $280B that they have seized.