Andrew Pryma, MBA
Ukraine is being pushed to negotiations with a terrorist state.
The Russian war in Ukraine has an obvious impact on the whole world and, most significantly, on the entire EU block. The Western allies want to stop this war. Did I use the correct word? Yes, to stop. However, accomplishing this will result in one of three scenarios:
First outcome: Allow Russia to take control of Ukraine by ceasing military and financial assistance for our bloody and battered nation.
What is being said: We see, at least, that the West understands that if Putin wins, not only Ukraine but the whole world will lose. Our allies want to support us in the fight against the invaders.
What is really happening: It seems like Ukraine and its allies are not even considering this option and respect the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine as of 1991.
Second outcome: Ukraine wins and reclaims all of its territory.
Being said: All the allies support this (except Slovakia and Hungary), think we have the potential to do it, and that we must accomplish it.
Really happening: Ukraine did not receive sufficient military support to repel the enemy when we had the chance. 2023’s spring offensive fell short of expectations, and we exhausted our reserves and weapons while Russia regrouped, tripled its weapon production, and continued to push our troops back. The amount of aid has begun decreasing. To take all its territory back, Ukraine will need much more than $100B over the next year. Is it possible? With recent aid delays and global hesitation, we will most likely not receive that much money.
Third outcome: A frozen conflict or territorial concessions.
Being said: Our allies say it is Ukraine’s decision alone to decide what to do in this case. No one should have input on the decision except for Ukraine.
Really happening: Ukraine does not have enough soldiers, weapons, or money. Even more than the troop shortage, Ukraine’s bigger problems are a lack of funds and weapons. Ukraine has switched from offensive to defensive mode, and has already lost 300 square kilometers of land this year. Russia is constantly recruiting for its military, and the latest announcement declares that 300,000 new Russian soldiers are on their way to Ukraine. It looks like we are pushed toward making territorial concessions or, as our allies call it, “negotiations.” Whether this is intentional or not, we are left with the sobering realization that Ukraine doesn’t stand a chance without international military and financial aid. We receive some aid soon, but will it be enough to take our territory back or to hold the frontline? If not, we will be forced to negotiate or continue to fight the war for the next two to three years until we exhaust our reserves to a critical level and must, once again, sit down and negotiate.