Andrew Pryma, MBA
The lack of success at the frontlines and political instability undermines the Russian army’s capabilities.
The latest news from the aggressor state is not encouraging those of the Russian population who support the war. They see not only the lack of success at the frontlines but also political games and drama undermining the professionalism of the Russian army.
The head of the Wagner private army, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is hated by the Russian Army and its leaders, has announced his army’s withdrawal from the Bakhmut region a few times. Prigozhin’s latest statement came a few days ago when he posted a video of himself walking among his dead fighters’ bodies and said Wagner’s casualties were “growing in geometrical progression every day because of the lack of ammunition”. He addressed this issue to the top military commanders: “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is the… ammunition?… They came here as volunteers and died for you to fatten yourselves in your mahogany offices.”
As a result, Putin’s immediately asked the Chechen leader, Kadyrov, to take the lead and send his people to the frontlines to replace Wagner’s troops. Also, it is well-known that the Russian Army also hates the Chechen leader and his army for several reasons, but most of all by the Federal Security Service (FSB).
So, Prigozhin understands that his power is diminishing with the latest failure to recruit more soldiers for his army and after losing many of his troops in Ukraine. Soon, nobody will even ask his opinion in the Kremlin. He is not trying to save his soldiers; he wants to keep his power. He knows very well the war is most likely lost, and Putin will not last much longer, and he needs to stay influential and powerful.
Besides the lack of success in Bakhmut, the Russian-installed authorities continue to evacuate Zaporizhzhia region residents away from the front lines in the annexed region due to the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive and constant artillery fire. Moreover, Crimean citizens could not leave the peninsula this weekend because the bridge was closed. There was a several-mile-long line of cars with people who were hoping to cross the Kerch Bridge back to Russia.
Yesterday, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defense Vladimir Gavrilov said, “We will start our counteroffensive soon, when and where it doesn’t matter. Russia will panic, and you will see even more panic soon. They still don’t understand that their propaganda shows a false picture of what is happening on the ground… This war will be won on the ground, not on TV screens or the internet.”
With all the recent events, it is obvious the Russian system is falling apart. Most likely, we might witness the fall of the longest-serving dictator in Russia