Andrew Pryma, MBA

Andrew Pryma, MBA

December, 2023

Is the NATO afraid of Russia? Is the alliance weak?

The Russian aggression in Ukraine shows how weak NATO is and how the Alliance members act completely independently. But at the same time, nobody can make a decision without consulting with other members of this organization. Poland announced that it should prepare its army to defend its territory from Russia if Ukraine loses. Commander-in-Chief of the Swedish Armed Forces Mikael Büden said that Sweden should prepare for a potential war that may break out in their country. The Baltic states are also actively preparing their armies, or perhaps you could say an army, against the Russian state. More and more EU countries have started preparations in case of war with Putin.

Also, it seems that the organization is not functioning as it is designed. Its members are not united or ready to offer support to each other and simply try to avoid any conflict with Russia, ignoring rockets and drones that fall on their territories. Russia keeps testing NATO and has revealed its weaknesses and tendency toward inaction. All Alliance members are individually preparing themselves for war because there is no guarantee that other members of the Alliance will help them when they need it.

Interestingly, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty does not state that in the event of an attack on one state, the others will automatically enter into war. The provision states that an attack on one state will be considered an attack on all. But each state will take measures that it considers appropriate. Obviously, these measures may vary and should be determined based on consultation. However, suppose Putin decides to invade a small country such as Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. In that case, he would be able to accomplish this in 48 hours because the NATO states will be busy with consultations and debating what to do.

Also, to be honest, it is difficult to imagine that Turkish President Erdogan will express a desire to protect his NATO allies in a military confrontation with the Russian Federation. Therefore, it is easier just to watch while your neighbor is being killed. So, what is the real purpose of NATO?