OPEC+ will once again increase oil production, allowing Western firms to increase shipments of Russian crude.

Earlier this year, the Western energy sector began to consider how it might carefully return to Russia if peace is reached in Ukraine. Due to falling oil prices, Greek vessels transported 26% of Russian oil in April, and in March, they made up 30% – over 100% higher than their market share in 2024. Shipping Russian oil remains legal under Western sanctions as long as the price stays below $60 per barrel.

The actions of Greek shipowners also reflect the improving relations between the US and Russia since President Trump took office again. However, Trump’s recent criticisms of Putin, particularly his warning of new sanctions, highlight why many Western firms are wary of resuming operations in Russia. Greek shipping companies collectively possess the world’s largest tanker fleet, giving them considerable influence over the oil market.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ has agreed to increase daily oil production by another 411,000 barrels in July, despite objections from Russia. This marks the third consecutive month of production hikes, which have caused oil prices to fall to a four-year low in April, dropping below $60 a barrel.