NATO expects an escalation on the Ukrainian front this fall and is wary of Russia capturing Odesa.

Unlike the Trump administration, few in Europe believe Moscow will agree to a ceasefire. One Ukrainian official believes Russia’s main goal now is to seize Odesa, which Putin sees as a historically Russian city, and without it, Ukraine will lose access to the Black Sea. Ukrainian officials are increasingly calling for a ceasefire in closed meetings with Western allies, although a year or two ago such calls would have been seen as defeatist. Experts say the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front is worsening and could become critical by fall. Both the Russian and Ukrainian armies are nearing exhaustion.

“But while Russia is likely to maintain the intensity of operations for another year, Ukraine could hit its limit within six months if it doesn’t receive significant military support,” the FT notes.

Kyiv has urgently called on the West to provide American Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS missiles for MLRS. However, some Western experts believe that despite reduced military supplies and losses, Ukraine will be able to hold the front line for the next year.