Last season, Ukraine’s grain exports declined by 21%, but revenue stayed level due to rising prices.

According to analysts, in the 2024/2025 marketing year (July-June) Ukraine exported 40.1 million tons of grain, which is 10.5 million tons, or 21%, less than in the 2023/2024 marketing year. The physical volume of corn exports dropped by 7.6 million tons, and wheat by 2.7 million tons. Key reasons for the decline include a decrease in the corn harvest caused by summer drought and the depletion of stocks built up in 2022 due to the forced restriction of exports from the blockade of Ukrainian ports.

Prices for primary grain exports last season rose nearly in line with the drop in physical volumes. As a result, export revenues stayed nearly the same. Revenue from grain exports reached $8.1B, only 2% lower than the $8.3B in the 2023/2024 MY. Without the price increases, total export losses would have been about $1.7B. Despite the reduction in supplies, Ukraine remains fourth in the world corn market and sixth in the wheat market.