In the second half of the year, bank lending rates may return to last year’s levels of 17-18% per annum.

Under favorable economic conditions, rates on auto loans, loans for small and medium-sized businesses, and mortgages may align with the 2024 level: They are expected to decrease by an average of one percentage point to 17-18% per annum, noted Serhiy Mamedov, VP of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.

He believes that with economic development and a decrease in inflation to 9% per annum, the National Bank may reconsider its monetary strategy. It’s possible that by the end of the year, the regulator will reduce the discount rate, the rate on three-month certificates of deposit, and other monetary instruments by 1-1.5 percentage points.

“Reducing the discount rate to 14-14.5% will allow banks to more actively develop various credit programs – primarily loans for small and medium-sized businesses, mortgages, and car loans, because the cost of funds raised for credit programs will decrease. At the same time, it is possible that rates on hryvnia deposits may also decrease by an average of 1-1.5 percentage points,” the banker predicts.